Friday, June 11, 2010
A Depression only in hindsight?
The rally that recently ended in April 2010 came after a crash that was actually slightly more severe than the 1929 crash (53% versus 48%). It took the market up nearly 80% from the low! The recent rally also lasted longer than the 1930 rally did--a year, as opposed to 6 months.
It may be the start of a great new bull market, one that will shake off the current "correction" and roar back to the market's old highs. On the other hand, it may yet also be another version of what happened in 1930--the start of another bear market that will take the market down for years.
Importantly, we won't know for sure what today's market is until we look at it with the genius of 20/20 hindsight. Even as late as 1931, they didn't know they were in a "Great Depression" yet.
What things looked like in the Spring of 1929