Wednesday, January 16, 2008

U.S. Recession 'has arrived'

The feared recession in the US economy has already arrived, according to a report from Merrill Lynch.

An official ruling on whether the US is in recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but this decision may not come for two years. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months".

Merrill Lynch said that the current consensus view on Wall Street that ‘there is a good chance of avoiding a recession’ is "in denial". "To say that the backdrop is 'recession like' is akin to an obstetrician telling a woman that she is 'sort of pregnant'," the report said.

[BBC excerpt]

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