An official ruling on whether the US is in recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but this decision may not come for two years. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months".
Merrill Lynch said that the current consensus view on Wall Street that ‘there is a good chance of avoiding a recession’ is "in denial". "To say that the backdrop is 'recession like' is akin to an obstetrician telling a woman that she is 'sort of pregnant'," the report said.
[BBC excerpt]
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